March 1994.
The dialogue opened by U.S. diplomacy between Zagreb and Sarajevo has led to the green-light by the leaders of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina for the Federation project between Bosnian Croats and Bosniaks [you can listen to the latest episode of BarBalkans - Podcast here].
This is the decisive step toward the end of the war between two of the three warring parties on Bosnian territory, and for the peace between the two former Yugoslav Republics. With direct implications for the entity born from the Croat secessionism in Bosnia.
The Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia.
The New Federation in Bosnia
On March 1, the Croatian Foreign Minister, Mate Granić, the Prime Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Haris Silajdžić, and the newly appointed President of the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia, Krešimir Zubak, sign a preliminary agreement on the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The political project is based on the Swiss model, with 8 cantons (3 Muslim-majority, 3 Croat-majority and 2 mixed), a central government with exclusive power over defense and foreign policy, and extensive local autonomy.
And there is more. A second arrangement should give birth to a confederation between the new Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The two States would remain independent, but with strong military and economic ties.
All this would imply the end of the Bosnian-Croat entity in Herzegovina, but the President of Croatia, Franjo Tuđman, is working hard not to abandon the allies that helped him with the project of Greater Croatia for more than a year and a half.
The former President of the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia, Mate Boban, enters the management of the INA oil company. The commander of the Bosnian-Croat unit responsible for the destruction of the Old Bridge in Mostar in November 1993, Slobodan Praljak, is promoted to general.
Political tension in Zagreb increases with the discovery of Croat concentration camps in Herzegovina. Some leading members of the Croatian Democratic Union break with President Tuđman, including Stjepan Mesić, the former President of Yugoslavia who stated that «Yugoslavia no longer exists» while resigning in December 1991.
Meanwhile, the Bosnian government agrees with the project sponsored by Washington, as it would allow the creation of a State entity able to face Republika Srpska (de facto a separate entity, but dependent on Belgrade’s support).
Starting from March 4, talks between the Croatian and Bosnian delegations proceed under the leadership of the U.S. Special Envoy for the Former Yugoslavia, Charles Redman. After ten days of negotiations at the U.S. Embassy in Vienna, a final agreement is reached on March 13.
The signing ceremony for the understanding is held on March 18 in Washington - hence Washington Agreement. The U.S. President, Bill Clinton, watches Croatian President Tuđman and his Bosnian counterpart, Alja Izetbegović, officially end one of many conflicts on Bosnian soil.
The twilight of the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia is inevitable. But for the time being, formal abolition is not coming.
The new Federation cannot resist without ending the war with Serbs and Bosnian Serbs, since they control almost 70% of Bosnian territory. And this is why they are targeted by the Washington Agreement.
However, this aggressive policy finds resistance in Europe, except for Germany. After the interlude of the Juppé-Kinkel Plan, German diplomacy aligns again with the United States.
France and the United Kingdom are particularly impatient with the Clinton administration, which is more focused on tightening relations with Russia to pressure Belgrade.
On March 14 in Vladivostok - just one day after the sign of the Washington Agreement - U.S. Secretary of State, Warren Christopher, and Russian Foreign Minister, Andrej Kozyrev, agree on a common policy in the Balkans.
Kozyrev’s deputy, Vitalij Čurkin, starts traveling between Moscow, Belgrade and Pale to urge the Serbs to converge on a diplomatic and peaceful solution to the ongoing conflict in Bosnia. As done by Croats and Bosniaks under the U.S. initiative.
The crisis of the Serbian economy
The message by United States and Russia is not heard by the Bosnian Serbs - who vote against possible membership in the new Bosnian Federation on March 24 - but rather by the President of Serbia, Slobodan Milošević.
The Serbian leader is aware that the long-lasting war and international sanctions are imposing an unbearable cost on the national economy, which is now on the verge of bankruptcy.
Since 1991, the estimated damage amounts to $45 billion, living standards are worse than any other European country, and inflation has reached one of the lowest points in history. Only the Papiermark during the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic in 1922 it was worth less than the 500 billion dinar banknote in early 1994 in Serbia.
To revive the fortunes of the Serbian economy, Milošević entrusts Dragoslav Avramović with the presidency of the National Bank of Yugoslavia. The 75-year-old economist is a former adviser to Tito and collaborator of World Bank - described as a “super grandpa” - who sets a «salvation program» for Serbia.
Avramović stops the printing of the old dinars and replaces them with banknotes tied to the German mark, with a fixed one-to-one exchange rate. While inflation is stopped - and people in Belgrade talk about an «economic miracle» - the currency is exhausted and now there is no hope without peace and without sanctions.
Something is moving in Belgrade, as shown by another war front - even though it is frozen since February 1992 - on the territory of the former Yugoslavia. The new President of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, Milan Martić, is being pressured by Milošević to engage in dialogue with Zagreb.
On March 29, peace talks at the Russian embassy in Zagreb lead to an agreement, that includes the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the Croatian army and the Serbo-Croatian forces within 20 kilometers from the front line. Moreover, a 1,000-kilometer line controlled by the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) is established.
This seems to be a step toward peace on Croatian territory after three years of hard-fought and frozen war. On March 30, the UN Security Council passes Resolution 908, that extends the mandate of the Blue Helmets for another six months in Krajina and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The siege of Goražde
However, all this does not prevent an escalation of the conflict on Bosnian territory.
While Milošević opens for dialogue to avoid spillover effects on the Serbian economy, he wants to prevent Sarajevo strengthening ties with Washington and reinforcing the Bosnian army.
The high-level U.S. mission in Sarajevo is so important that President Izetbegović must leave the session of the Assembly of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina when the new Constitution is approved.
At the end of March, a direct line of communication between the Bosnian Presidency and the U.S. State Department is activated.
This is how the Serbian military leadership decides to take the offensive in the Drina River Valley against its isolated Bosniak enclaves: Goražde, Žepa, Srebrenica and Tuzla.
The casus belli is a (made up) offensive that the Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina would be preparing to connect all the enclaves along the Drina River with Sarajevo and to conquer the territories of the Sanjak and Kosovo. The goal would be to connect all the Muslim population on the former Yugoslav territory.
Following the rejection of the cease-fire from Sarajevo, a massive offensive on Goražde is unleashed on the night of March 28-29.
More than 10 thousand soldiers - including criminals just released from prisons and the infamous Arkan’s Tigers - 100 tanks and more than 300 mortars converge from Serbia and Montenegro on the Bosniak enclave in the Drina Valley. The offensive is led by Yugoslav Army Chief of Staff, Momčilo Perišić, and Republika Srpska Army Chief of Staff, Ratko Mladić.
These huge military forces are faced only by four brigades of Bosnian Army defenders stationing in Goražde. Since the end of the assaults in the summer of 1993, they have thought they were safe in the UN «protected area».
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