December 1995.
The Dayton Agreement has officially ended the wars in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, setting out the new structure of the region – in particular the shape of the Bosnian state [you can listen to the latest episode of The Yugoslav Wars here].
The agreement is celebrated with great fanfare in Washington, but in Bosnia the situation is far from stable.
The Bosnian Serb leadership tries in every possible way to undermine the agreement, even though it is also signed by Serbian President Slobodan Milošević.
More broadly, the political climate makes peace a fragile creature, both within Bosnia and across the wider region.
The Mirage crisis
The news arriving only a few days after the signing of the Dayton Agreement is alarming.
Not only is Bosnian Serb Colonel General Ratko Mladić seeking to renegotiate the terms of peace, but everywhere – and everyone – seems to be indulging in vandalism and looting.
This is especially true for those on the wrong side of the demarcation line, who must leave their homes and villages within three months, which are to be returned to their former owners. This applies to Bosnian Serbs in Sarajevo and the Goražde corridor, Bosnian Croats in Mrkonjić Grad and Šipovo, and Bosniaks in Travnik.
Meanwhile, it is decided that the formal ceremony for the signing of the Dayton Agreement (already signed in the United States after the final negotiations) will be held in Paris.
Thus begins a frenzy of diplomatic activity.
On 6 December, the 40 ministers of NATO and the Partnership for Peace meet in Brussels. On 7 December, the 53 foreign ministers of the OSCE meet in Budapest. On 8 December, the same ministers gather in London with officials from all the international organisations involved in Bosnia and Herzegovina to coordinate implementation of the agreement on civil and economic matters.
After almost three and a half years, the International Conference on the Former Yugoslavia is abolished and replaced by the Peace Implementation Council, chaired by former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt.
France, however, threatens that the agreement will not be signed in Paris unless the two French pilots held hostage by Bosnian Serbs are released first.
France’s disappointment at the failure of its strategy in the Balkans, and the diplomatic ascendancy gained by the United States, now intersects with the so-called ‘Mirage crisis’.
After the fighter jet is shot down on 30 August, the two French pilots have remained prisoners of the forces led by Mladić, who is fully aware of their value as bargaining chips – including at a personal level.
Mladić himself returns the two soldiers on 12 December to General Jean-Philippe Douin, the French army’s chief of staff, demanding in exchange not be prosecuted by the Tribunal for crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia.
The Paris Protocol
On 14 December, in Paris, the official signing ceremony takes place for the agreement that the presidents of Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina already signed three weeks earlier in Dayton.
However, a slightly different document is brought to the ceremony at the Elysee Palace – not in substance, but in form.
The Paris Protocol is an abridged version of the Dayton Agreement (consisting of 165 pages of text and 102 maps). The real crux lies in the wording of the mutual recognition between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which does not rule out further discussions on their future relations.
In his speech, US President Bill Clinton calls on all Bosnian communities to renounce revenge.
However, the future remains uncertain, given the still acute nationalism and the disastrous socio-economic situation throughout the country.
Not to mention the psychological legacy of three and a half years of war, massacres, and ethnic cleansing, whose perpetrators may escape prosecution.
According to the latest United Nations report, there are at least 250,000 deaths, 50,000 cases of torture, and 20,000 cases of rape; 143 mass graves and 715 concentration camps; as well as at least two million displaced persons – inside and outside the country.
The Serbian magazine Republika explains in no uncertain terms what the last three years in the Balkans have been like:
“This war contains within it all the wars known to history: it is ethnic, religious, civil, imperialist, and aggressive. It is a war of peasants against citizens, a war for the destruction of the middle class, a war of land and blood. There is no alternative to peace; it is the prerequisite for the resumption of life. We must give it a chance so as not to perpetuate our crimes, so as not to remain a staging ground for the world’s conflicts. But are we really up to the task, especially considering that the dogs of war are proclaimed lords of peace from on high?”
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